I am Orbinho, ask me (almost) anything!

AMA Response:

The Thierry Henry scoring 100 goals at a single stadium is one of my favourites. I came up with it and it was used on the big screens at the stadium when he did it. Almunia saving five of six penalties faced at the Emirates. I researched and watched all 7000+ goals from 1992-1999 from old VHS tapes to work out that Thierry Henry held the record for Premier League assists. And this season, Diego Costa not committing a single foul against Arsenal at Stamford Bridge, despite kicking, pushing, gouging and hacking everything that moved. That got over 6000 retweets on OptaJoe - that was fun watching the mentions :)

AMA Response:

That one stat explains everything. Having more possession doesn't guarantee a win or mean that you were better. Having more shots doesn't mean you will win. Data has to be looked at with context to provide any real insight. What was the quality of those shots? Was that possession in good areas or create scoring opportunities?

AMA Response:

Neither.

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I don't think anyone saw it. Even those who bet on them at 5000/1 wouldn't have expected to be cashing in. I am not a statistician so haven't calculated anything, but I don't think anyone can truly claim they would have predicted a Leicester title win.

AMA Response:

This is a hard one to answer. Most stats don't tell a complete story. If I had to pick one thing it would probably be a more clinical striker.

AMA Response:

Arsenal earned 75 points last season and signed one player. They went into the campaign with one striker. You pretty much knew that if we stood still we would end up with roughly the same outcome. I don't think it felt like we had enough to win the title at the start of the season and the only reason it seemed possible halfway through is that all the other big teams were underperforming.

AMA Response:

Anfield 89 is a big one and maybe the final whistle of the Arsenal v Leicester match to seal the unbeaten season.

AMA Response:

If you had said Arsenal would be above Man City, Chelsea and Man Utd at the start of the season, most people would have been delighted. The fact that we are ahead of those teams and still 13 points off top spot is not great.

AMA Response:

I met Almunia at London Colney. He's probably the tallest. I also met Eduardo & Eboue that day.

AMA Response:

To be honest, we are more of a data provider than anything else though so we provide the raw materials and wallow others to use it to make their predictions, either for fun or in the betting industry.

AMA Response:

What Leicester have done is win tight games. They have scored fewer goals than Spurs and conceded more yet are comfortably clear. You get three points for winning 1-0 as well as 4-0 or 3-0. Arsenal have won six games by a one goal margin, Leicester have won 14.

AMA Response:

The advantage of owning your own data company is that you can collect the things you want to and that you deem are important. This also gives you competitive advantage over your rivals if they don't have access to that data. One of the things we get asked for a lot is second balls, or shots made under pressure. Because we have limitations on how much we collect and what we do collect is mainly for media consumption, then a generic approach isn't ideal for all clubs. Also, the company Arsenal bought has some very clever data scientists who use that data to come up with insights into player scouting - it isn't just data gathering.

AMA Response:

I am responsible for working internally with other areas of the business and externally with clients in how to best utilise sports performance data.

AMA Response:

Possibly the worst stat is having dropped 14 points from winning positions. Only two teams have dropped more this season. I think a team that is serious about winning things can't throw away leads. Points dropped at Liverpool, West Brom, West Ham and Swansea have proved costly. Once we're ahead, we seem more intent on scoring more than biding our time for the right moments.

AMA Response:

I think based on data and emotion Sergio Aguero. I love watching him play. My son would like us to sign Antoine Griezmann, I'd take Marco Reus. I think the team needs a dominant central midfield player in the Patrick Vieira mould though. Not many of them around.

AMA Response:

We have data from those seasons. I think what might surprise you is that the Invincibles averaged just 14.2 shots per game. We have averaged more than that in 11 of the last 12 seasons, including this term. We also have a better chance conversion this season than in 2003-04.

In comparing old football, we have analysed all World Cup finals matches back to 1966. The World Cup final of 1966 had over three times as many shots as 2006. We also analysed the Matthews final (1953) and compared it to Arsenal v Chelsea in 2002, for the anniversary in 2003 and as you would expect the passing accuracy was far lower, the number of dribbles far higher and the number of shots higher in the 1953 final.

AMA Response:

I don't think football is at the point where anyone can claim they have found a real competitive advantage using data in the way the Oakland As did. It's very much in its infancy and the fluidity and sheer unpredictability of football means that clubs are some way off being able to claim that. What data can help with is identifying potential talent and short-cutting the scouting process. It can identify strengths and weaknesses of your own or opposition teams, but if you know Liverpool are bad at defending corners, you can't necessarily turn your own team into a team that is brilliant at corners just to exploit that weakness in a one off game. There are certainly some insights the performance data can offer, but I wouldn't say any of those are currently giving anyone a significant advantage.

As more physical and tracking data becomes available and is matched with event data, then we may see more insight being gleaned but as with most things, a lot will come down to the talent of the people using the data as well as the talent being maximised of the players and staff at a football club.

AMA Response:

38% of the goals Arsenal have conceded while David Ospina has been in goal have been from headers over the last two seasons. 14% of the goals Arsenal have conceded have been headers with Cech in goal. 29% of the goals Cech has conceded have come from crosses, while 50% of those shipped by Ospina have come from centres into the box. This suggests it's a more profitable route for teams to score against us when Cech isn't playing.