Zizoucool

The only possible reason for this is that Wenger isn't capable enough to do what SAF did and have an 80+ point average

I agree with you that 80+ is bare minimum. That is a good observation. But if I ask why was AW unable to do an SAF, one of the factors is surely squad quality which is not entirely in his hands because of finances. The tactics, type of signings etc are directly dependent on the manager, so he has his share of the blame.

Those are the points at which a team mathematically won the title in that season.

Ah, that classic Wenger's line about being in the title race unless it is mathematically impossible. Got it now!

Wengers managerial approach perfectly summed up in 7 words...

Ouch. That's stretching a little bit too far, I believe!

It's not really 80% though

I know, but I was in no mood to calculate 17/20

You control your own destiny in this league

You can say that about everything else in life that is complex than a lottery

They have completely different problems

We have problems but surely Wenger is not the solution to those problems. I think better squad is what we want.

My ideas after rereading the write up:

I think AW had great squad till Viera left. Since then, I believe, this season we have a real PL competing complete squad. But for the sake of argument, I consider the season from which we signed Ozil as the season with complete squad.

If I take the data points till 2004-05, and from 2013-14 to 2015-16, that is 7 seaons from the data (the absolute minimum needed to win it on goal difference (not the point tally that actually won it)) available in the article and performance by AW in corresponding seasons:

• Absolute Min average: 79
• Wenger's Average: 80.29

So I infer that Wenger is good enough to land a title if we continue building on the current squad.

I don't completely understand this data: the absolute minimum needed to win it on goal difference (not the point tally that actually won it). So if possible please elaborate on this and also update it for 1996-97 to 1999-00 and 2016-17 seasons.

I believe the article unduly forgets the poor squads Wenger had. The averaging leads to a misleading conclusion.

Of course I can, that's how statistics work. Read the article above and it explains why reaching 80 points is essential to winning the league.

I don't know why you say, that's how statistics work. Looking Wenger's performance alone, probability of you being correct is 4/5 and not correct is 1/5. I'm just saying conditional on having a perfect squad, probabilities can change dramatically like 2003-04, 2007-08 seasons. You can blame Wenger for not recruiting right players but can't write him off with 80% chance that even with good players he will not win a league.

Wenger has dropped four points per season since 2014 and is now realistically hovering around the 70-point barrier.

It's ok. Mid-table teams have grown really stronger. But Wenger was getting better in out-smarting most of the teams, while rest of the competitors were finding it hard. Mourinho, Pep are struggling with their super-star squads. I bet they can't do as well as Wenger with the Arsenal squads over the years.

We have to beat teams like Bayern, Barca or Real Madrid over two legs, which we simply don't have the quality to do.

We have been doing well against big teams but with many away-goals rule exits. Hopefully luck will favour us this time.

Spending or making money has no impact on Wenger's average.

We want the league, which is a relative thing. You just can't keep looking Wenger's performance in-silo.

• Ozil: 4th Position
• Sanchez: 3rd Position
• Cech: 2nd Position
• Mustafi, Xhaka: was hoping to be 1st. But definitely impossible now. Good chance to end up at 2nd again, which can be meaningless - an improvement that is not good enough.

80 is a good benchmark that you choose. Last week it looked not so tough. Now it is truly uphill task. Though we surpass it, we can't win the league.

Mustafi joined 2016-2017: ...67 points?

Last time we had 67 points we were in CL final! So I would take that :D

No, I'm saying he's a freakishly consistent manager that is capable of hovering around 75 points per season regardless of what players he has at his disposal.

Season 1st Arsenal Diff

• 15-16 81 71 10
• 14-15 87 75 12
• 13-14 86 79 7
• 12-13 89 73 16
• 11-12 89 70 19
• 10-11 80 68 12
• 09-10 86 75 11
• 08-09 90 72 18
• 07-08 87 83 4
• 06-07 89 68 21
• 05-06 91 67 24

The same stats I would compare with the points of the 1st placed teams to account for some factors like impact of big buys at Arsenal, turmoil at other clubs etc

There is clear downward trend in the difference from 24 to 10. So I say he is not really consistent but actually is improving with big buys and he is one/two seasons away from the title.

I also think it's ridiculous to insinuate that Man Utd suddenly came upon a treasure chest of cash in 2005 and that is why SAF managed to keep Man Utd competitive. Sure, they identified that they had to spend a bit more than usual in order to keep up with Chelsea (and subsequently Man City), but they were spending ridiculous cash before Chelsea emerged (Veron anyone?).

I was referring to Chelsea. Yeah United was spending large amounts at that point too. But Man Utd had unearthed a superb talent named Ronaldo, plus the word-class combination of Vidic and Ferdinand. And the old-guard stuck around and had a smooth transition. But for Arsenal, the Adebayors, Cescs, Hlebs, RvPs deserted year after year. Only this season I feel our squad was complete after year on year solid signings. Only to be proved wrong with the same injury demons coming back at the wrong time.

Having made these arguments(excuses), my head wants him to bid goodbye at the end of the season but the heart is still willing to wait a couple of more seasons till he lifts another PL, a tail-event as you may call!

That looks like a very convincing argument but you are implying that Wenger is a mediocre manager who would have same results even if he had the stars of Barcelona/Madrid. That is sheer injustice to the effort put by the manager. You compare him with SAF, but both had the same number of >80 point seasons till 2004-05. Then mad money came into football and the rest is history. Add to it the Emirates loan situation at Arsenal. The inference stated don't capture these major qualitative factors!

Are you jealous of Arsene Wenger? ;)Hello, I have seven major titles, I completely reinvented the game, and I banged north London sluts left right and centre, all while obliterated on Absinthe. Wenger ain't got nothing on the Herbmeister.

Thanks for the confirmation!

Are you jealous of Arsene Wenger? ;)